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『ペルシア湾岸情勢と日米関係』
https://ouj.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/7383
https://ouj.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/738341369f9d-3682-4fc7-a9f0-10378355ab42
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
|---|---|---|
NO_15-23-33 (929.7 kB)
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| Item type | 紀要論文 / Departmental Bulletin Paper(1) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 公開日 | 2013-06-14 | |||||
| タイトル | ||||||
| タイトル | 『ペルシア湾岸情勢と日米関係』 | |||||
| タイトル | ||||||
| タイトル | U.S.-Japanese Relationship over the Persian Gulf | |||||
| 言語 | en | |||||
| 言語 | ||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
| 資源タイプ | departmental bulletin paper | |||||
| 著者 |
高橋, 和夫
× 高橋, 和夫× Takahashi, Kazuo |
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| 抄録 | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
| 内容記述 | ペルシア湾情勢の将来を語ることは，専門家のする事ではない．この地域は，予言者の墓場である．いわく，イランの王制は安泰である．いわく，イランの革命政権は短命である．いわく，イラン・イラク戦争がイラクの短期間での圧勝に終わる．などなどである． しかし，その将来を敢えて展望して見ると，不安定な要素が多い．四つの変化の流れが合流してアラビア半島諸国を洗うだろう．それは，人口爆発，石油収入の低下，アメリカ軍の存在が引き起こす民族・宗教感情高まり，そして指導者の世代交代である．またイラクではサッダーム・フセインの独裁が続いている．しかし，この長期不安定政権にもいつかは変化が訪れるであろう． こうして見ると，ペルシア湾岸諸国で一番安定感があるのはイランである．そのイランでは緩慢ながらも革命熱の低下するプロセスが進行してる．革命体制の「進化」が起こりつつある．この進化に注目して，イランとの批判的な対話を進める日本やEUと，イラクとイランの同時封じ込め，いわゆる「二重封じ込め」政策を掲げるアメリカとの間に齟齬が生じている．イランの国内情勢の変化に対応した「進化」が，アメリカのイラン政策にも求められている． |
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| 抄録（英） | ||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||
| 値 | Change will come to the Persian Gulf countries one way or another. Given that change stems primarily from domestic factors, there is probably little that outside powers can do to influence the course of events in the Gulf region. Meanwhile, no matter what happens in the region, and who holds power there, Japan must purchase oil and gas from Gulf producers. Perhaps the only comfort is that the rulers of Gulf oil producing countries also have no alternative; they must export these commodities. Sooner or later, the regime in Iraq will collapse. Thereafter, the major challenge will be to maintain the unity of the country, and, if possible, forestall the reemergence of a dictator. Preventing Iraq from sliding into civil war like Afghanistan, and assisting the Iraqi people to rebuild their country, is the responsibility of the international community as well as Iraqis themselves. Iraq is far too important to be allowed to destroy itself. Cooperation among neighboring states (including Iran) and outslde powers is a prerequisite for preventing Iraq's self-destruction. Iran remains the key to tke Persian Gulf. There is a debate about its international behavior, but its society is steadily changing. Iranians respond to Islamic slogans with little enthusiasm. Their waning commitment is reflected in the composition of the Iranian parliament elected in 1996, which contained fewer conservative mullahs and more women than ever. The city of Tehran is cleaner, bedecked by flowers rather than revolutionary graffiti. Capturing the sentiment of the times, big Iranian hotels have begun to honor credit cards like Visa and Master Card. These changes prepared the way for Mohammad Khatami's upset victory in the presidential election last May. Just nine years have passed since Ayatollah Khomeini's death, and only ten years have elapsed since the Iran's war with Iraq ended. Recognizing that it takes time for revolutionary fervor to cool down, the best course of action for outside powers to adopt may be simply to allow this process to continue. Meanwhlie, one hopes that US policy towards Iran will correspondingly evolve. |
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| 書誌情報 |
放送大学研究年報 en : Journal of the University of the Air 巻 15, p. 23-33, 発行日 1998-03-31 |
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| ISSN | ||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
| 収録物識別子 | 0911-4505 | |||||
| 書誌レコードID | ||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | NCID | |||||
| 収録物識別子 | AN10019636 | |||||
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Cite as
高橋, 和夫, Takahashi, Kazuo, 1998, U.S.-Japanese Relationship over the Persian Gulf: 23–33 p.
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